Welcome to our September Integra Bulletin!
We hope this bulletin will keep you up-to-date with topical financial matters that can directly affect you… and your money!
Trump and Kim Jong Un continue trading blows
Tensions between North Korea and the US again dominate the world headlines as North Korea continues to test its own nuclear capability.
Not only firing missiles into the sea over Japan but by way of further provocation North Korea also announced that it was considering launching missiles in the direction of Guam.
Mr Trump has responded promising Fire and Fury would rain over North Korea should ever be so unwise to take this kind of action. It appears that brinkmanship is the order of the day.
Somewhat strangely the backdrop of a possible nuclear war doesn’t seem to have unduly affected the markets.
As one analyst was quoted "it's hard to price in annihilation!" It's likely that cooler heads will prevail. The one comfort from the Trump administration so far is that if Donald Trump says he’ll do something, it's very unlikely to happen!
Behind the scenes, the defence secretary and the secretary of state are hopefully making diplomatic progress. A North Korean strike on Guam would change everything however.
Elsewhere it's been a good period for gilts as the geopolitical turmoil reminds everyone that safe havens are still safe even if yields are already low. The hold on interest rates, falling inflation expectations, and general rising uncertainty across the board are all positive for the asset class.
Bears predicting the ending of the bond bubble any day now might have to wait a while longer yet before being proven right.
UK - Keeping Calm and carrying on
Against expectations, business investment has held up well since the Brexit vote.
More recently UK the government tried to sell a lack of progress on Brexit as a strong negotiating position.
When questioned on her future as PM, Mrs May proclaimed she was going nowhere. As she’s tied her position to the Brexit negotiations, this is entirely accurate.
Our personal view remains that the broad economic recovery which we are seeing across the globe will continue and pragmatism will eventually prevail at least for the foreseeable.
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