Your Argyle Financial Bulletin for January 2017

Dear Client,

Forecast Uncertainty

The Bank of England has likened it's doom laden Brexit forecasts to the gaff Michael Fish the late BBC weather forecaster made when he dismissed the likelihood of violent storms in October 1987. Whilst it is good when mistakes are admitted it does beg the question of why we should believe any forecasts, good or bad, when they come from people professing the ability to predict the future.

The only certainty, other than Benjamin Franklin's death and taxes, is that change will  be a constant in our lives. Some time ago in our Newsletter we presented a time lapse video of how much Europe has changed over the last 1000 years and we thought it might be helpful to present it again here.

We are currently reviewing our investment strategy for your portfolios to ensure they continue to meet the ongoing economic circumstances prevailing around the World. 

This month will hopefully have Prime Minister May presenting her Brexit plans to us, President Trump moving forward with his rather different approach to the US economy and a little more clarity on the social and economic events in a number of EU member states. 

There are still many unknown possibilities ahead involving inflation, interest rates and Quantitative Easing which will affect both equity and government bond markets so we will remain vigilant and cautious when considering any changes.

Globalisation

2016 brought us disturbing questions about globalisation and politics and made us all very aware of the divisions within our societies. These questions will not be fully answered in 2017 but we should start to see some response from our political and economic leaders as they realise that for many the status quo is no longer acceptable.