HANNAH NORVILL
 
With Susie Berry out of action over the past month, Hannah Norvill has grasped the Team French baton firmly with both hands. Hannah has won 4 classes this year and enjoyed a further 10 top 5 finishes. A win strike rate of 15% and a top 5 finish stake rate of 54% is excellent. Incidentally, her 15.38% win percentage is better than all bar Piggy and Christopher Burton from last season’s Top 20 riders on BE rankings. At the end of June she sat 3rd in the Mitsubishi Motors Cup Horse and Rider Table with 102 foundations points. This also left her in 19th place in the overall foundation points table. Well done, Hannah!
 
Mitsubishi Motors Table
 

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SUSIE BERRY
 
Susie has been out of action for 5 weeks now but is making a speedy recovery. She is back riding and has jumped a couple of times at Maidwell. She will make her competitive return to action at Aston Le Walls, the scene of the ill-fated day, in three weeks time before heading to Camphire in Ireland with three horses. She will ride her own Carsonstown Athena in the CIC***, Vina Buller’s Vanir Hello Duca in the CCI** and Susie Wood’s Morswood in the CICYR**. Here’s hoping she enjoys a straightforward run to the end of the season with no other hiccups along the way!
 
Susie Berry
 

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EVENT HORSE BREEDING
 
In the last edition of this newsletter I presented some statistics about the breeding of horses at Badminton Horse Trials this year. It prompted me to delve a little deeper and I have now expanded the research to include Badminton (2014, 2015, 2016), Burghley (2013, 2014, 2015) and Luhmühlen (2014, 2015, 2016) - the last nine European CCI**** events. The nine events include over 550 individual performances.

The graphs below show the relationship between the percentage of thoroughbred blood a horse possesses (TB%) and dressage, cross country and show jumping penalties. The final graph shows the relationship between total penalties and TB%.

In dressage there is a very slight negative correlation: as TB% increases, dressage penalties decrease. This is broadly similar to the show jumping where there is also a very slight negative correlation. However, in both phases, this correlation is so slight that there is essentially no difference between the performance of a full thoroughbred and a horse with no thoroughbred blood.

As might be expected, there is a much stronger correlation between TB% and cross country penalties. Here there is a distinct negative correlation with higher TB% horses outperforming those with lower TB%. At CCI**** level a full thoroughbred would be expected to get approximately 7.5 penalties on the cross country whilst a horse with 50% thoroughbred blood would be expected to get approximately 20 penalties.

Therefore, total penalties also has a negative correlation with TB%. A full thoroughbred would be expected to complete a CCI**** on a total score of approximately 72.0. A horse with 75% thoroughbred would be expected to finish on a score of 75.0 and a horse with 50% thoroughbred on 87.0.
 
DR Penalties - TB%
 
DRESSAGE
 
 
 
XC Penalties - TB%
 
CROSS COUNTRY
 

 
SJ Faults - TB%
 
SHOW JUMPING
 

 
Total Penalties - TB%
     
Harry Meade - Horse & Hound
 
HARRY MEADE - H&H
 
Harry Meade’s column in this week’s Horse & Hound, titled “Horse type is the crucial issue” made for interesting reading on the question of breeding in event horses. Harry argued “perhaps the most significant factor that influences safety at the higher levels is the type of horse we are now riding”.

Harry doesn’t specifically say about breeding but I think it is fair to say that is what he means by “type of horse”. 

I completely agree with the comments about the qualities of the traditional event horse: “stamina, courage, sure-footedness and agility” and “naturally fast, nimble and quick-thinking”. In contrast, “the modern sport promotes big-moving horses with a deliberate, careful jumping technique”. With safety in mind, this is the key difference - quickness of mind and limb is being lost in favour of bigger slower movement and jump (and brains).

The sport has undoubtedly changed and riders have searched for horses capable of competing with the best in the dressage and show jumping. After all, if one was looking for a pure dressage horse or a pure show jumper, a thoroughbred would not be the place to start. Therefore, it is only natural that more foreign breeding has come into eventing with less emphasis on the cross country phase.  

However, in the article Harry states “the best cross country horses in the world are no longer the best event horses in the world”. The data presented above would dispute this at CCI**** level. More blood horses perform better on the cross country (i.e. the traditional event horse being the best cross country horse) but there is no evidence to suggest that more blood has a negative effect on either the dressage or show jumping phases in modern eventing. In fact the data suggests the opposite; a very slight positive impact on performance in those two phases.

Why, therefore, are riders choosing to ride more foreign horses in eventing? Because of a perceived advantage of having a foreign horse in the dressage and show jumping? Or perhaps because a rider seeks an improved performance in those phases when their ability is the limiting factor? The majority of the time the majority of horses in a competition will jump clear on the cross country. Consequently, the frequent conclusion to be drawn about why a rider didn’t win was because their combined dressage and show jumping wasn’t good enough. Therefore, they go and buy a foreign horse who is perceived to be better in the dressage and show jumping. A logical thought process but when there is no evidence that a TB% horse cannot compete in either phase are riders attempting to make up for their own riding shortcomings?

As the sport has moved in new directions one rider has stood head and shoulders above the others: Michael Jung. He has consistently been outstanding in all three phases. And he has been doing it riding blood horses. 
 
CONCLUSIONS
 
I would suggest the movement towards more foreign horses has been powered, at least in part, by riders wanting to make themselves more competitive when it is their riding ability which is the limiting factor. Riders who aren’t good enough choose foreign horses who are perceived to be stronger in dressage and show jumping. However, the evidence suggests these horses are weaker on the cross country and, as Harry says, are being asked “to do something which evolution did not intend". This results in a situation where bad riders are riding bad cross country horses which is a recipe for disaster.

I doubt the idea that riders choose foreign horses to compensate for a lack of riding ability will win me many fans on the eventing circuit. It is a generalisation and I am sure there are riders who ride foreign horses because they like them but it is worth noting that the top riders in eventing - Jung, Fox-Pitt, Nicholson, Burton, Townend, etc. - all usually ride blood horses. Indeed, somebody told me that Jung looks for nothing other than blood and trainability in his horses. Similarly, Nicholson, in his autobiography, says he looks for horses who can move and jump with as much thoroughbred blood as possible. It is clear that the riders at the top level of eventing are competing and winning on blood horses. The statistics over the last 9 European CCI**** events show that blood has a very slight positive effect on dressage and show jumping performance and a strongly positive effect on cross country performance. Therefore, I would argue that the best cross country horses in the world continue to be the best event horses in the world.
 

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Photo Of The Month
 
PHOTO OF THE MONTH
 
Piggy and I were fortunate enough to be invited to attend the World Premiere of Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie by writer and co-star, Jennifer Saunders. We both confess to being a little out of our depth but thoroughly enjoyed the experience - I doubt it will ever happen again! We met Carl Hester and Charlotte Dujardin beforehand so weren’t the only people more at home on horseback. A big thank you to Jennifer for inviting us and all the very best of luck with the film.

Watch the trailer here and the film in a cinema near you now!

On another note, Jennifer was a winning owner in June with the aptly named Cooley Monsoon winning a EI100 with Beth Burton at Killossery Lodge, Ireland. 
 
VIDEO OF THE MONTH
 
Piggy and I have spent 6 days in Ireland over the past 5 weeks and I have done another 3 on my own. I have bought one horse which is a pretty bad return on investment, both financial and time! However, the one horse I did buy, Emerald Jonny, has gone well and, after a month at Maidwell, continues to grow in our estimations. Jonny is a 4yo by Waldo Van Dungen x Rubels so on breeding flies in the face of everything presented above. However, he wasn’t bought to be an upper level event horse (though he may well have the ability to be one) but has all the qualities to make someone a cracking Junior/Young Rider horse in a couple of years. He is very balanced, moves well and jumps well and has a great mind. Moreover, he is very forward in his way of going and quick with mind and limb, all of which will stand him in good stead as he progresses up the levels.
 
Emerald Jonny